Why COP31 must break free from fossil fuel influence

Fossil fuel interests continue to delay progress in global climate diplomacy. Recent geopolitical tensions underscore what’s at stake. Disruptions in the Middle East, including threats to trade through the Strait of Hormuz, have rattled oil and gas markets, exposing the fragility of fossil fuel-dependent energy systems. COP30 failed to confront the fossil fuels driving the crisis. The world cannot afford another year of weak ambition.

COP31, under an unusual co-presidency between Türkiye and Australia, now faces a defining test: will it serve the public interest or the industries stalling progress?

As the annual decision-making meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), COP is where countries are expected to strengthen their national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, scale up climate finance for vulnerable nations, and turn previous commitments, including the pledge at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels, into concrete, accountable action.

COP31 is not just another summit, but a critical checkpoint for whether governments will align policy with science and the urgency of the crisis.

Rising tensions in the Middle East further underline the risks of fossil fuel dependence. Disruptions of key routes like the Strait of Hormuz can send immediate shockwaves through global energy markets, reinforcing how closely energy security and conflict are linked.

As long as economies remain dependent on coal, oil, and gas, energy security will remain tied to geopolitical risk. As UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned, “fossil fuel dependency is ripping away national security and sovereignty and replacing them with subservience and rising costs.”

Europe’s scramble to replace Russian gas after the invasion of Ukraine, and continued reliance on Middle Eastern oil, illustrate this pattern: dependence exposes nations economically and politically.

At the same time, major powers continue expanding fossil fuel infrastructure and supply alliances, even as climate risks intensify. This contradiction lies at the heart of today’s climate impasse.

COP presidencies shape agendas, broker deals, and define ambition. Without strong safeguards, trust erodes quickly.

Recent summits illustrate the risk. COP28 and COP29 leadership faced criticism over fossil fuel ties. COP30 drew backlash over partnerships linked to fossil fuel clients. While some transparency measures were introduced, they fell short of a credible integrity framework.

COP31 must go further. The co-presidency should publish full team lists, disclose all funding and partnerships, and adopt strict conflict-of-interest rules, barring sponsorships or consultancies tied to fossil fuel or other high-polluting industries. It should also release summaries of meetings with external stakeholders.

These are not radical demands; they are basic safeguards that would strengthen legitimacy and set a higher standard for future summits.

The problem extends beyond any single presidency. The UN climate process still lacks a formal conflict of interest policy governing fossil fuel participation.

At COP30, more than 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists were granted access as research by the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition found, many through government delegations. Meanwhile, cities around the world are banning fossil fuel advertising to curb greenwashing, highlighting a contrast between local policy trends and global climate negotiations.

Reform is both possible and precedented. The World Health Organization has long protected tobacco policy from industry interference, demonstrating that strong safeguards can work.

This approach was reinforced in 2025 by UN Special Rapporteur Elisa Morgera, who called for systems to prevent fossil fuel industry interference in the UN climate process.

While the COP31 co-presidency cannot rewrite UN rules alone, it can shape the agenda and build momentum for reform.

Key moments this year, from Santa Marta’s conference to the Copenhagen Ministerial, the Berlin Petersberg Climate Dialogue, and the Bonn climate meetings, offer opportunities to build consensus ahead of COP31. Support is already growing, with around 80 countries backing fossil fuel phaseout language and 24 countries endorsing the Belém Declaration to advance the transition in 2026.

However, the broader geopolitical context raises the stakes. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, energy prices will spike, and pressure to expand fossil fuel production will intensify, risking further delays to climate action.

The Türkiye-Australia partnership has clarified how COP31 will run. Now it must ensure the summit is protected from high-polluting interests.

Because a clean energy transition is not only a climate imperative; it is a geopolitical necessity. By embedding strong integrity standards, COP31 can restore trust in climate diplomacy and help deliver a fair transition away from fossil fuels.