The investigation has centred on “a [US] $7.1 billion deal [in 1999] for the government to buy ships, submarines, helicopters, jets and other arms,” reports the Associated Press. According to Bloomberg, “Zuma, 65, is accused of trying to secure bribes from two South African units of Thales SA, Europe’s largest military electronics maker, in exchange for protecting them from a probe into arms purchases by the state. He is also alleged to have used his political influence to help an advisor win contracts in exchange for money.” Zuma and Thint Holdings SA and Thint PTY Ltd (the two subsidiaries of Thales in question) “face a total of 18 charges” (Bloomberg).

The FT reports that “many of Mr Zuma’s supporters in the party’s grassroots and radical fringes have long alleged that he is the victim of a political conspiracy orchestrated by his old friend turned political enemy Mr Mbeki, and have threatened to protest and demonstrate if charged.” Zuma’s lawyer, Michael Hulley, has commented that the timing of the serving of the indictment lends “credence to the long-held view that the Scorpions [the investigating unit] were influenced and their prosecution informed by political considerations” (South African Broadcasting Corporation). The NPA spokesperson, Tlali Tlali, has rejected the allegations stating: “Our only allegiance is to the constitution of the country, which compels us to prosecute serious matters such as the present one, without fear, favour or prejudice” (Sunday Independent).

Pierre de Vos, a constitutional law professor at the University of the Western Cape, believes that if convicted, Zuma will “be sentenced to a 15-year minimum [jail term]…He will be caught up in court cases for the next two or three years. It will make it very difficult for him to have authority and govern the country” (Bloomberg). According to the FT, Zuma has made it clear that he will not run if convicted. In this event, Kgalema Motlanthe, the new deputy president of the ANC, is the most likely replacement for Zuma, according to the South African Business Day.

The trial has potentially far reaching effects. Reuters highlights the concerns that the charges “look set to deepen political uncertainty in Africa’s biggest economy and fuel tensions between the ANC rank-and-file backing Zuma and Mbeki’s government.”