Postponing Bulgaria’s accession until 2008, although a possibility, remains unlikely. The Financial Times reports that “such a move would have to be approved unanimously by the 25 member states, a highly unlikely scenario given that countries such as Britain and Poland want Bulgaria and Romania to join on schedule next year”. Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev has expressed concern over possible postponement, commenting to the BBC in late March that: “A postponement would cause disappointment towards the EU. It would deprive the Union of credibility and could have a negative effect on the fragile development of the West Balkans”. The Guardian notes that delaying membership might “make no difference and might set back reform programmes”.

Olli Rehn, the EU’s enlargement minister, has indicated that Bulgaria needs to do more to reform its judicial branch and to tackle corruption and organised crime if it plans to join on schedule. In mid-April Agence France Presse indicated that Mr Rehn had “serious concerns about the rule of law in the country. We need concrete tangible results in fighting high-level corruption and organised crime to show that nobody is above the law”.

The BBC reported in late March that Bulgaria claimed to be making progress against corruption, as “nine Bulgarian members of Parliament [were] under investigation for corruption”. Bulgaria also has a new anti-corruption body and has appointed a public prosecutor. The Irish Times noted that “Bulgaria’s parliament did approve amendments that aim to increase accountability in the country’s lumbering courts and prosecution service which have failed to reduce the grip of organised crime on every level of business and politics”.

The European Commission will decide on 16 May if Bulgaria will join as scheduled.